Nigerian Electoral Black Market: Where Do Party Switchers Go and Why Does It Matter?

Abstract

With most existing research on party switching concentrating on the drivers of defection and the electoral performance of defectors, this research sheds light on the events that occurred after MPs switched parties but before voters sanctioned them in the next election. Using Nigeria as a case study, I discover that instead of establishing their own parties and banking on their personal popularity for electoral victory as some have speculated in new democracies, switchers strive to stay within the dominant parties, thereby challenging generalised narratives of weak parties in Africa. Through the utilisation of qualitative and quantitative data from elite interviews and an original dataset, I equally discover that name recognition and fiercely contested primaries make dominant parties in Nigeria simultaneously the net gainers and losers of party defectors. Additionally, evidence shows that while switchers are more likely to get ballot access than non-switchers, they similarly become targets of party retaliation.