Abstract
Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.
Highlights
Tropical forests have shown a striking variability in their vulnerability to warming by climatic change [1]
While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as available land area decreases with elevation [3]
Podocarpus parlatorei occurs in montane environments from 17 to 288 S latitude and elevations that vary from 1200 m.a.s.l. at its southern limit in Argentina to 3000 m.a.s.l. at its northern limit in Bolivia
Summary
Tropical forests have shown a striking variability in their vulnerability to warming by climatic change [1]. Most such evidence comes from lowland tropical forests. More optimistic views suggest that evergreen lowland tropical forests are among the least vulnerable biomes to warming, given low absolute increases in temperature compared to upper thermal tolerance limits [2]. Most predictions under climate change suggest a temperature increase and the displacement of the ‘equatorial limit’ of plant species towards higher, i.e. colder, latitudes [4 – 7], i.e. to the north and south in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively
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