Niche overlap between the endemic Albizia lathamii and the invasive Prosopis juliflora in response to changing climate: insights from a protected area in Western Ghats, India

Abstract

ABSTRACT Forest management must consider how organisms respond to climate change wildly when invasive and vulnerable species coexist in the same region. Albizia lathamii (AL), a threatened legume endemic to southern India, is being conserved in Chinnar Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS), a protected area (PA) in the Western Ghats. Prosopis juliflora (PJ), a dangerous intruder that seriously harms the environment has grown significantly in the PA over the past 10 years. This study attempted to comprehend the current distribution overlap of both species and to simulate their future distribution inside PA under the anticipated climate change scenarios. Overall, 103 standing positions of PJ and 69 of little-known AL were recorded and rarefied to 14 (seven PJ and seven AL) by a distance of 1-km resolution. Using the maximum entropy species distribution model, we estimated the future distribution overlap of both species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results reveal a sizable overlap between the two species in their future distribution. The “Suitable for AL-only” class exhibits a reduction in the area (by 44%) when projected to future scenarios. This indicates that AL’s natural habitat in the CWS-PA is at risk due to the invasiveness of the plant PJ and climate change. To conserve endemic and vulnerable plants, it is crucial to comprehend the distributional overlaps between the two species and design effective management strategies.