Nezaposlenost i histerezis efekat - slučaj Republike Makedonije

Abstract

The Republic of Macedonia is faced with high and persistent unemployment which remains over 30% during the period of transition. Taking this into consideration, the task of this paper is to offer an explanation for the high and persistent rate of unemployment in Macedonia in the period of transition. Explanation for long-term and persistent unemployment in Macedonia is based on the concept of the hysteresis theories, which is an approach primarily used on behalf of the new Keynesian economy. Having in mind the different theories about the concept of hysteresis, the paper offers a comprehensive analysis about the applicability of this concept at the labor market in Macedonia. The central point of this paper is the question 'Whether and to which extent the short-term shocks on the side of the aggregate demand in Macedonian economy, that led to increase in the factual unemployment, could be treated as being one of the sources for permanent rise of unemployment?' Or in other words, 'Is it possible to recognize Hysteresis at the labor market in the Republic of Macedonia?' Results of the paper will serve to academic, scientific, professional and political public in explaining the problem of unemployment in the country. Results and conclusions will also serve to policy makers, primarily to the Government, Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, to understand the effect of neglecting the short run in the economy and to create adequate policy for management of aggregate demand.