Nexus of COVID-19 and carbon prices in the EU emission trading system: evidence from multifractal and the wavelet coherence approaches.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyzed the role of carbon pricing as a vital tool for achieving the sustainable energy transition and discussed policy implications for reaching this goal in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate the connection and cross-correlation between COVID-19 cases and carbon price returns in EU ETS, we applied two novel approaches: the multifractal detrending moving average cross-correlation (MF-X-DMA) and the wavelet coherence techniques. The coverage of data is from 2 March 2020 to 19 March 2021. The results of the MF-X-DMA method show that the cross-correlation is substantial and negatively correlated. Moreover, the results imply the presence of multifractal cross-correlations and that a significant change in the number of COVID-19 cases further impacts carbon price fluctuations. Concerning the wavelet coherence method results, we can also find a strong (negative) relationship between selected variables, and this strong correlation is observed throughout the whole study period. In addition, we observe that in the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, the changes in the COVID-19 cases are leading the CO2 price returns (particularly in the 16–32 time scale). The results of this study can have significant implications for policymakers and contributions for environmental experts and investors.