Abstract
Agriculture is vital to India's economy and food security but is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study examines the impact of rainfall, temperature, arable land, energy consumption, fertilizer, and technology inputs on cereal production in India from 1965 to 2018 using ARDL and Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality techniques. Results show temperature negatively affects cereal production, while rainfall, arable land, energy, fertilizer, and technology have a positive impact. There is a unidirectional causal relationship between these factors and cereal production. The study suggests adopting modern technology, prioritizing organic farming, educating farmers, investing in agricultural R&D, and developing sustainable irrigation infrastructure.
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