Next-day largest earthquake magnitude forecasting with the aid of Moon tidal force and sunspot data

Abstract

Seismicity is a complex phenomenon with a multitude of components involved. In order to perform forecasting, which has yet to be done sufficiently well, it is paramount to be in possession of information of all these components, and use this information effectively in a prediction model. In the literature, the influence of the Sun and the Moon in seismic activity on Earth has been discussed numerous times. In this paper we contribute to such discussion, giving continuity to a previous work. Most importantly, we instrument four earthquake catalogs from different regions, calculating the Moon tidal force at the region and time of each earthquake, which allows us to analyze the relation between the tidal forces and the earthquake magnitudes. At first, we find that the dynamical system governing Moon motion is unidirectionally coupled with seismic activity, indicating that the position of the Moon drives, to some extent, the earthquake generating process. Furthermore, we present an analysis that demonstrates a clear positive correlation between tidal force and earthquake magnitude. Finally, it is shown that the use of Moon tidal force data and sunspot number data can be used to improve next-day maximum magnitude forecasting, with the highest accuracy being achieved when using both kinds of data. We hope that our results encourage researchers to include data from Moon tidal forces and Sun activity in their earthquake forecasting models.