Next Steps for the Relative Education Hypothesis

Jonathan Horowitz

doi:10.1177/00031224211042329

Abstract

The relative education hypothesis states that in contexts where university degrees are scarce, workers with bachelor’s degrees are sought after and enter cognitively skilled occupations; but as education expands across birth cohorts, some workers with bachelor’s degrees are unable to maintain their position in the labor market. In an earlier ASR article (Horowitz 2018), I found support for this argument; however, Furey (2021) shows model instability in estimates of the education–skill relationship. We should treat the results from these two studies as a range of possible estimates, and carefully consider interpretation of the findings in the context of the selected reference categories. Future revisions of the relative education hypothesis should consider that absolute and relative education effects might not shift concurrently, and also that labor market experiences may vary considerably by field of study and occupation.

Highlights

In a previous ASR article, I examined the cognitive skill utilization of workers with bachelor’s degrees, and how this utilization changes as education expands over birth cohorts (Horowitz 2018)
The primary argument of the relative education hypothesis is that in contexts where university degrees are scarce, workers with bachelor’s degrees are sought after and enter cognitively skilled occupations; but as education expands across birth cohorts, some workers with bachelor’s degrees are unable to maintain their position in the labor market (Collins 1979; Hirsch 1976)
Results using an alternative fivecategory coding scheme suggest no absolute decline in cognitive skill usage, weaker relative educational effects, and that relative education effects only exist in comparison to workers without any high school degree

Summary

Introduction

In a previous ASR article, I examined the cognitive skill utilization of workers with bachelor’s degrees, and how this utilization changes as education expands over birth cohorts (Horowitz 2018). The original study tested this by examining CPS data from 1971 to 2010 and found that workers with bachelor’s degrees used less cognitive skill in labor markets with more degree-holders.

Results

Conclusion