Next day load curve forecasting using hybrid correction method

Abstract

In this paper, the authors propose a next day load curve forecasting using a hybrid correction method which is a combination of neural network and fuzzy logic. In this proposed prediction method, the forecasted load power is obtained by adding a correction that is obtained from the neural network and a fuzzy logic to the selected similar day's data. The neural network has the advantage of dealing with the nonlinear part of forecasted load curves. The fuzzy rules are constructed based on expert knowledge. Therefore, combining these methods, the proposed method is useful in situations where accurate forecasting models are difficult to obtain. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data of the Okinawa Electric Power Company in Japan.