New Zealand Tourism: Which Direction Would it Take?

Abstract

Tourism in New Zealand represents nearly 1 in 10 jobs, 9.1% of the country's GDP and 18% of foreign exchange earnings. The country's tourism brand, 100% Pure New Zealand, is world leading. However visitor demand and global tourism trends are changing. The Tourism 2050 project, commissioned by the Ministry of Tourism and the Foundation for Research in Science and Technology, set out to envision the future of tourism in New Zealand by asking the question, ‘What will New Zealand tourism look in the year 2050?’. The research project produced four scenarios, Manaakitanga, An Eco Paradise, Perfect Storm and The State of China, which all follow different pathways and are constructed upon realistic circumstances. The purpose of the scenarios was to provide a foundation to encourage and promote discussion in order to understand New Zealand's tourism future and to ‘think differently’. The scenarios provided a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal challenges New Zealand's tourism industry would face in the future and conclude with a series of strategic recommendations which are the basis of a tourism national plan. This paper provides a detailed account of that scenario planning process, content and outcomes, thus providing policy makers with a blue print of how to do scenario planning in the tourism context and serves as a guide to the future of tourism in New Zealand.