New Zealand: New futures, new thinking?

Abstract

The development of futures studies in New Zealand over several decades is reviewed. As in other jurisdictions, early futures studies in New Zealand were predominantly problem-oriented using trend analysis and scenarios. More recently it is heading towards developing more long-term perspectives including crowd-sourcing possibilities through social media. This is supported by the strong sense of stewardship embedded in its indigenous culture and an increasing use of participatory processes in environmental decision-making around highly complex issues. The potential to address complexity through technologies for wicked problems and futures literacy is discussed in detail. While the potential for wider relevance appears to move in disconnected phases of activity, there is a movement towards forms of long-term stewardship, albeit tempered by presentism. One highlight is the 2017 Act providing the Whanganui River with legal status equal to that of a person. Another is the use of collaborative environmental governance such as the Land and Water Forum and the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. Observations are made on how futures studies might develop in New Zealand and may be of significance more broadly. In particular the most significant elements of change may well be inspired through indigenous Māori culture which links, to developments in philosophy such as Dark Ecology which propose a shift in the current anthropogenic perspective.