New York State's 100% renewable electricity transition planning under uncertainty using a data-driven multistage adaptive robust optimization approach with machine-learning

Abstract

Abstract Power system decarbonization is critical for combating climate change, and handling systems uncertainties is essential for designing robust renewable transition pathways. In this study, a bottom-up data-driven multistage adaptive robust optimization (MARO) framework is proposed to address the power systems’ renewable transition under uncertainty. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study for New York State is presented. Machine learning techniques, including a variational algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture model, principal component analysis, and kernel density estimation, are applied for constructing data-driven uncertainty sets, which are integrated into the proposed MARO framework to systematically handle uncertainty. The results show that the total renewable electricity transition costs under uncertainty are 21%-42% higher than deterministic planning, and the costs under the data-driven uncertainty sets are 2%-17% lower than the conventional uncertainty sets. By 2035, on-land wind and offshore wind would be the major power source for the deterministic planning case and robust optimization cases, respectively.