New uncertainty modelling for cargo stowage plans of general cargo ships

Abstract

The current approach to the cargo stowage plans (CSP) of general cargo ships (GCS) is safety-driven, which means that any CSP satisfying minimum safety requirements can be used in practice. Such an approach taking into account no economic and environmental concerns cannot help sustain GCS growth in today’s competitive freight transportation market. This paper introduces a revised evidential reasoning (ER) approach to cope with the complex decision-making problem associated with the CSP of GCS. The complexity mainly results from the dynamic interdependency between the decision criteria and alternatives. The revised ER can determine the functions of the safety-related criteria in the decision making process by considering the extent to which each decision alternative meets the minimum safety requirements. The model is tested in multiple forms by an empirical study using a national GSC loading laboratory, and a real-life application by a shipping company in practice. The results reveals that the new model can aid general ship owners to make sustainable CSPs from a multiple-dimensional perspective and select an optimal CSP based on specific voyage scenarios.