New tourism product forecasting – application of Bass Diffusion Model and Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract

Previous researches usually applied Bass diffusion model (BDM) in forecasting the new product in various areas. This is the first application of BDM to the new tourism product since the model had been developed by Frank M. Bass in 1969. On the other hand, Grey forecasting model able to deal with limited number of data. Both BDM and grey forecasting model have been used in various areas in the forecasting studies. Taking advantages of both models, the combination of both Bass and grey model, called grey Bass forecasting model is applied in the context of the new tourism product forecasting. The objective of this study is to forecast the new tourism product demand in Malaysia using the developed model. Yearly visitors from two ecotourism resorts in Pahang, Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya from 2014 until 2018 are used. The results show that both BDM and grey Bass forecasting model are suitable in forecasting the new tourism product. The authors also suggest other factors affecting the attendance of visitors to be included in further research to conclude which model perform better in the future.