New Systems Thinking and Policy Means for Sustainable Energy Development

Abstract

Mitigation of the present global warming is a central challenge for a sustainable energy development. A major part of the global warming and the resulting climate change is due to combustion of fossil fuels with emission of CO2 as a dominating greenhouse gas (GHG). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is analyzing the global climate changes and its findings have been published in a series of reports since 1991. Each report takes several years of preparation and the consequences of global warming have turned out to appear faster than foreseen in the latest report [IPCC 2007]. Several experts are estimating that irreversible ”tipping points” are only few years ahead [Hansen et al. 2008, Kopp et al. 2009]. As a consequence they propose that the goal for the future CO2 concentration in the atmosphere should be as low as 350 ppm compared to the value in 2009 of about 387 ppm. A recent report from the National Research Council in the US has pointed out that the global warming will continue for several hundred years even if the GHG concentration is stabilized at the present level [National Research Council 2010]. So far, strategies for mitigation of global warming have mostly focused on technological solutions e.g. promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) on the supply side and energy efficiency on the demand side. Less attention has been given to potential contributions from changes in lifestyle and alternative economic, institutional and social systems. Despite long and tedious preparations for COP15 in Copenhagen in December 2009, the final result [Copenhagen Accord 2009] lacked concrete commitments for reduction of GHGs after 2012 when the Kyoto Protocol expires. Moreover, the Copenhagen Accord is only an offer of co-operation that individual nations can choose to support. A specified goal of maximum 2 degrees increase in global mean temperature was included in the Copenhagen Accord but concrete policy means to attain the goal were missing. Recent analyses indicate that this goal will require that about half of present fossil reserves, especially coal, should remain under ground [Meinshousen et al. 2009 ]. No reference to such a requirement was included in the Copenhagen Accord. For simplicity, this chapter focuses on CO2 emission from fossil fuels as a dominant contributor to climate change, but CO2 from deforestation as well as emission of methane (CH4), laughing gas (N2O) and a number of industrial GHGs should be included in a more comprehensive analysis.