New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the comovements and relationships between real, credit, house, and equity price cycles in European Union countries looking at their link to structural characteristics and their predictive power for future recessions. We make use of new within country synchronicity indices, finding that among the different credit cycles and between the house price cycle and the real cycle, there is a relatively high level of synchronicity. Credit and gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations seem to be less synchronised, mostly because credit volumes tend to lag the real cycle by several quarters. The high rates of private homeownership tend to be associated with larger cycles in GDP, credit, and house prices. Higher loan‐to‐value ratios, seen as a proxy of borrowing constraints, and a higher percentage of flexible‐rate mortgages, could also indicate that a country is more sensitive to shocks and possibly increase procyclicality and increase cycle volatility. Finally, the procyclicality of the credit and housing market to the GDP cycle can be linked to the fluctuation in current accounts and their misalignments with respect to the theoretical equilibrium value. Some synchronicity measures and, above all, the credit cycles may also be considered for signalling future recessions.