New statistical deterministic method for estimating human thermal load and sensation — application in the Carpathian region

Abstract

A new statistical deterministic model is presented for estimating human thermal load and sensation. Human thermal load is simulated in terms of clothing resistance (rcl) and operative temperature (To). The model’s input data are wind speed, air temperature, mass of the human body, body length, sex, age, and the latitude of the site. To is statistically linked to potential evapotranspiration, whilst human thermal perception to rcl. The model has been validated in the Carpathian Mountains region for the period 1971–2000 comparing it with the original deterministic rcl model. Thermal perceptions of the representative Hungarian male and female are estimated by using individual thermal perception–rcl point clouds. Metabolic heat flux density differences between persons are less than 15 Wm−2. Human thermal perception area distribution has a topography-based configuration. The prevailing annual perception of Hungarians (for both men and women) in lowland and hilly areas is “cool,” although “neutral” may also occur; in mountains, perception is mostly “cool” or “cold,” with “very cold” being also possible. In the month of July, the perception type in mountains is “neutral” or “cool” depending on the person. In lowland areas, the methodology cannot be applied since the energy balance is not met. The model can also be applied in other heat-deficient regions if the region-specific operative temperature–potential evapotranspiration and the human-specific thermal perception-rcl statistical relationships are determined for the new region.