Abstract
New scaling relationships of key earthquake source parameters are developed by uniformly and systematically analyzing 226 finite-fault rupture models from the SRCMOD database (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod/). The source parameters include the fault width, fault length, fault area, mean slip, maximum slip, Box-Cox power, correlation lengths along dip and strike directions, and Hurst number. The scaling relationships are developed by distinguishing tsunamigenic models from non-tsunamigenic models; typically, the former occurs in ocean and has gentler dip angles than the latter. The new models are based on extensive data, including recent mega-thrust events, and thus Eire more reliable. Moreover, they can be implemented as multivariate probabilistic models that take into account uncertainty and dependency of the multiple source parameters. The comparison between new and existing models indicates that the new relationships are similar to the existing ones for earthquakes with magnitudes up to about 8.0, whereas the relationships for the fault width and related parameters differ significantly for larger mega-thrust events. An application of the developed scaling relationships in tsunami hazard analysis is demonstrated by synthesizing stochastic earthquake source models in the Tohoku region of Japan. The examples are aimed at providing practical guidance as to how the developed scaling relationships can be implemented in stochastic tsunami simulation. The numerical results indicate that the effects of magnitude scaling of the source parameters and their uncertainties have major influence on the tsunami hazard assessment.
Highlights
Earthquake source modeling aims at predicting key characteristics of a fault rupture based on past major earthquakes
New scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters were developed using the extensive set of 226 finite-fault rupture models obtained from the SRCMOD database to fill the critical research gap in stochastic earthquake source modeling
The novelty and significance of this study are that the new models consider geometry and slip parameters and spatial slip distribution parameters, and can be implemented as multivariate prediction models in probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment
Summary
Earthquake source modeling aims at predicting key characteristics of a fault rupture (e.g. geometry and slip distribution) based on past major earthquakes. The probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment can be classified into two categories: one is stochastic earthquake source modeling [Goda et al, 2014; Goda and Abilova, 2016] and another is a stochastic logic-tree approach [Horspool et al, 2014; Fukutani et al, 2015] Both approaches require scaling relationships of fault parameters (e.g. width and length) for a given magnitude, the generalization of such scaling models is still poorly developed for tsunamigenic earthquakes. To develop scaling relationships for spatial slip distribution parameters, Mai and Beroza [2002] analyzed 44 finite-fault rupture models that were obtained from source inversion studies, and modeled wavenumber spectra using von Karman, Gaussian, and fractal models. The new models facilitate the synthesis of realistic earthquake rupture models and will enable various investigations using stochastic earthquake scenarios, including reliability analysis of coastal structures against massive tsunamis [e.g. Tsujio et al, 2015] and probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment [Fukutani et al, 2015; Goda and Abilova, 2016]
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