Abstract
The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has been reported to predict coronary heart disease (CHD), but its assessment has been unsuccessful in Asian population. We aimed to assess FRS and Suita score (a Japanese CHD prediction model) in a Japanese nation-wide annual health check program, participants aged 40–79 years were followed up longitudinally from 2008 to 2011. Of 35,379 participants analyzed, 1,234 had new-onset CHD. New-onset CHD was observed in diabetic men [6.00%], non-diabetic men [3.96%], diabetic women [5.51%], and non-diabetic women [2.86%], respectively. Area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for CHD prediction were consistently low in Suita score (TC), FRS (TC) and NCEP-ATPIII FRS (TC), suggesting that these scores have only a limited power. ROC, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test did not show clear differences between Suita score (TC) and FRS (TC). New models combining waist circumference ≥85 cm in men or proteinuria ≥1+ in women to Suita score (TC) was superior in diabetic men and women. New models could be useful to predict 3-year risk of CHD at least in Japanese population especially in diabetic population.
Highlights
Www.nature.com/scientificreports its assessment in the Japanese population has been unsuccessful[9]
We evaluated the following: (1) assessments of FRS and Suita score in a large Japanese population using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test; (2) assessments of FRS and Suita scores in men and women with or without diabetes; (3) development of newly modified CHD-predictive models based on Suita score in participants with and without diabetes; (4) assessments of two scores by ROC curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA)
New coefficients for Suita score (TC) covariates. We developed another new risk model in which all the variables included in the Suita score were reassessed to obtain better model performance.β-coefficients of Suita score (TC) variables[9] such as age, to Suita score (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (HDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, HbA1c and estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) were recalculated in the-sex specific models to obtain best fit models
Summary
Www.nature.com/scientificreports its assessment in the Japanese population has been unsuccessful[9]. The Suita score is a CHD-predictive model score based on the Suita study, a prospective cohort study evaluating new-onset CHD in Suita City, Osaka, Japan[9]. Assessment of the Suita score in other large Japanese populations has not been performed[9]. We evaluated the following: (1) assessments of FRS and Suita score in a large Japanese population using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test; (2) assessments of FRS and Suita scores in men and women with or without diabetes; (3) development of newly modified CHD-predictive models based on Suita score in participants with and without diabetes; (4) assessments of two scores by ROC curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA)
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