New predictors of mortality in adults with congenital heart disease and pulmonary hypertension: Midterm outcome of a prospective study

Abstract

BackgroundPatients with CHD-PAH have a limited prognosis. In daily practice, combination therapy is often initiated after a clinical event. Although clinical events have been associated with a poor prognosis in idiopathic PAH, data on this association are limited in CHD-PAH. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline characteristics and clinical events associate with mortality in patients with pulmonary hypertension (PAH) due to congenital heart disease (CHD). MethodsIn total 91 consecutive adults (42±14year) with CHD-PAH were referred for therapy between January 2005 and June 2013. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to identify determinants of mortality, including clinical events as time dependent covariates. ResultsTwenty-four patients (nine with Down) died during the median follow-up of 4.7 (range 0.1–7.9) years. The one and eight year mortality rates were 7.3% and 37.3%, respectively. Clinical events included admission for heart failure (n=9), arrhythmias (n=9), haemoptysis (n=5), change to a worse NYHA class (n=16), vascular events (n=1), syncope (n=1) and need for red blood cell depletion (n=4). In univariate analysis, both baseline characteristics and clinical events were associated with mortality. In multivariate analysis, only baseline NT-pro-BNP serum level≥500ng/L and TAPSE<15mm at echocardiography were significant determinants of mortality. None of the clinical events remained significant. Patients with both a NT-pro-BNP serum level≥500ng/L and TAPSE<15mm at echocardiography have a nine fold higher mortality rate than patients without both risk factors. ConclusionPrognosis is still poor in contemporary patients with CHD-PAH. Both baseline NT-pro-BNP serum level and right ventricular function are superior to clinical events in prognostication. These two baseline characteristics should have a major impact on therapeutic management in patients with CHD-PAH, such as initiation of combination therapy.