New lag associations between North Atlantic sea temperature and European pressure applied to long‐range weather forecasting

Abstract

AbstractA feed‐back relationship, at least in the statistical mean, between Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the one hand and monthly atmospheric circulation anomalies on the other hand, is demonstrated for the north‐east Atlantic and western Europe. The key area in the Atlantic is a wide area south of Newfoundland; colder than usual ocean surfaces in this area are shown to be associated with blocked atmospheric patterns the following month over northern and western Europe while a warmer than usual ocean in the same general area favours more progressive synoptic types to follow. Month to month changes in this general relationship are described in some detail and the application to long‐range forecasting in the British Isles is discussed. One other pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly is also described and associated with atmospheric circulation patterns to follow.Possible inter‐relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in respect of the effects of ocean surface temperatures on circulation patterns is also briefly considered.