New Intelligent Economic Modelling Techniques: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Face the Question of the Greek Current Account Deficit Sustainability

Abstract

This paper offers an alternative approach to policy modeling aiming at considering the question of the Greek current account deficit sustainability using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM). Given that the large Greek current account deficit figures reported during the past few years have become the source of increasing concern regarding its sustainability and bearing in mind the wide variety of views on this issue, we have chosen to resort to an entirely different technique compared to traditional policy modeling. The paper concludes that despite its size, the current account deficit of Greece can be considered sustainable. This conclusion, however, must not be taken as neglecting the structural weaknesses that lead to such a deficit. In fact, even in the absence of any financing requirements these high deficit figures point to serious competitiveness losses with everything that these may entail for the future performance of the Greek economy