New insights on modeling news dissemination on nuclear issues

Abstract

Using a modified epidemiological model, the dissemination of news by media agents after the occurrence of large scale disasters was studied. A modified compartmented model was developed in a previous paper presented at INAC 2007 in which, the Chernobyl nuclear accident (1986) and the Concorde airplane crash (2000) were used as a base for the study. Now the model has been applied to a larger and more diverse group of events – nuclear, non-nuclear and naturally caused disasters. To be inclusive, old and recent events from various regions of the world were selected. A more robust news repository was used, and improved search techniques were developed to ensure that the scripts would not contain false positive news. The same model was used but with improved non-linear embedded simulation optimization algorithms to generate the parameters of interest for our model. Individual parameters and some specific combination of these allow a number of interesting perceptions on how the nature of the accident/disaster gives rise to different profiles of growth and decay of the news. In our studies, events involving nuclear causes generate news repercussion with more explosive/robust surge profiles and longer decaying tails than those of other nature. As a consequence of these differences, public opinion and policy makers are also much more sensitive to some issues than to others. The model, through its epidemiological parameters, shows in quantitative manner how “nervous” the media content generators are with respect to nuclear installations and how resilient this negative feelings toward nuclear can be.