New insights into predictors of autoimmune pancreatitis relapse after steroid therapy

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Objectives While autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) responds well to steroid therapy, the high relapse rate in type 1 AIP remains a critical problem. The present study examined predictors of relapse of type 1 AIP following steroid therapy. Materials and methods Nine factors potentially predictive of relapse were analyzed in 81 AIP patients receiving steroid therapy with follow-up ≥ 12 months. The rate of serum IgG4 decrease following steroid therapy was calculated by dividing the difference between serum IgG4 values before and at two months after the start of steroid by the IgG4 value before steroid. Results A relapse occurred in 11 patients (13.5%) during a median of 38 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of IgG4-related retroperitoneal fibrosis (HR: 5.59; 95% CI: 1.42–22.0; p = 0.014) and the low rate of serum IgG4 decrease after steroid therapy (HR: 0.048; 95% CI: 0.005–0.46; p = 0.008) were significant, independent predictors of AIP relapse. The cut-off value based on receiver operating characteristic curve data for the rate of serum IgG4 decrease before and at two months after steroid therapy distinguishing patients with and without a relapse was 0.65. Using this cut-off value, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity were found to be 0.63, 0.73, and 0.60, respectively. Conclusion The low rate of serum IgG4 decrease after the start of steroid therapy and the presence of IgG4-related retroperitoneal fibrosis were predictive of type 1 AIP relapse. Cautious, gradual tapering of steroid dosage and longer maintenance therapy are recommended for patients with these factors.