New insight into aggressive Intended Nationally Determined Contributions in China – What lessons China should learn from Germany to reduce production-based carbon emission

Abstract

The future sceneries of global carbon emission post-Paris climate accord rely on the implementing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), which is based on reducing production-based carbon emission. China and Germany are the world’s production centers, with the world’s largest trade surplus. A comparative analysis of production-based carbon emissions in China and Germany can service to implementing cost-effective and aggressive INDCs in China and Germany. To this end, the change trajectories and driving factors of production-based carbon emissions in China and Germany from 2000 to 2014 were investigated to use input-output method and decomposition techniques. The emission accounting results show that production-based carbon emission from 2000 to 2014 increased by 194% in China, whereas decreased by 17% in Germany. Embodied carbon emission flow analysis showed that sector structure of production-based carbon emissions in China and Germany was greatly different. The decomposition of production-based carbon emission showed that (i) the leading contributor in China was consumption structure in China, whereas the leading contributor in Germany was per capita consumption in Germany; (ii) production structure and consumption structure contributed to increasing the emission in China, but was offset the emission in Germany; (iii) the rapid decline in the carbon intensity coefficient offset emissions in both China and Germany. To implement more aggressive INDCs, China should learn the German example to optimize production and consumption structure, while continuously improve its carbon efficiency.