New Heuristics to Stratify Applicants: Predictors of General Surgery Residency Applicant Step 1 Scores

Abstract

In 2022, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores will become pass/fail. This may be problematic, as residency programs heavily rely on USMLE Step 1 scores as a metric when determining interview invitations. This study aimed to assess candidate application metrics associated with USMLE Step 1 scores to offer programs new cues for stratifying applicants. Retrospective cohort study analyzing interviewed applicants to one general surgery residency program in 2019 and 2020. Applicant data analyzed included USMLE Step 1 scores, number of publications, clerkship scores, letter of recommendation scores (out of 2, scored by 0.25 interval), interview overall score (out of 5, scored by integer level), and standardized question score (out of 10). Each year, applicant's answers to one standardized behavioral question during their interview were scored by interviewers. Tertiary medical center, academic general surgery residency program. Interviewed applicants at one general surgery residency program whose applications contained complete demographic information (203 out of 247). Multiple Linear Regression revealed that higher surgical clerkship (β = 0.19, p = 0.006) and higher standardized interview question (β = 0.32, p < 0.001) scores were positively associated with applicant USMLE Step 1 score (F[7, 195] = 6.61, p < 0.001, R2 = 0.19). Letter of recommendation score, number of peer reviewed publications, gender, race, and applicant type (preliminary/categorical) were not associated with USMLE Step 1 scores. With USMLE Step 1 scores transitioning to pass/fail, surgical residency programs need new selection heuristics. Surgery clerkship scores and standardized behavioral questions answered by applicants prior to the interview could provide a holistic view of applicants and help programs better stratify candidates without USMLE Step 1 scores.