New Fault Lines in Europe: the Political Consequences of Brexit

Abstract

Studies • volume 106 • number 423 317 New Fault Lines in Europe: the Political Consequences of Brexit John Bruton The historic context of Brexit If one reviews European history over the period since the Reformation five hundred years ago, the role that England has sought to play in Europe has been that of holding the balance between contending powers. England used its naval strength, and the overseas colonies its naval strength allowed it to hold, to exercise that balancing European role. At no time in the last five hundred years did the UK seem to disengage from, or turn its back upon, continental Europe. Indeed, England felt it so much a part of continental Europe that Henry VIII actually contemplated being a candidate for Holy Roman Emperor. Rather, England sought to be sufficiently involved in Europe to exercise its balancing role effectively, but without being so intimately enmeshed in continental issues that it lost its freedom of action. England’s extension of its power to Ireland and Scotland were contributions to its goal of defence against, and influence over, continental Europe. That same motivation lay behind the decisions the UK took to go to war in August 1914 and September 1939 – maintaining a balance in Europe. The position that the UK held in the EU on 22 June 2016, the day before the Referendum, could be said to have been a perfect expression of that traditional English approach. The UK was having its European cake, and eating it too. The UK was a full voting member of the EU, but was exempted from aspects of EU policies that it might have found too entangling, like the euro, the Schengen passport free zone, Justice and Home Affairs cooperation and the Social Chapter of the EU treaties. But, as a full voting member, the UK could still influence the direction of the EU, and, if necessary, slow down developments it did not like, such as a major role for the EU in defence, where the UK preferred the job to done by NATO. The UK’s budget contribution had been modified through a rebate, and agricultural policy had been modified in a direction sought by the UK. New Fault Lines in Europe: the Political Consequences of Brexit 318 Studies • volume 106 • number 423 The UK, it could be said, had the best of both worlds the day before the referendum. It was sufficiently ‘in’ to exercise influence on the EU, but sufficiently ‘out’ to maintain the sort of freedom of action that befitted its historic role. Why Ireland sees the EU differently Ireland’s position is very different from that of the UK. It has different, but not incompatible, priorities. They explain why Ireland is determined to remain in a strengthened European Union. Ireland, like most of the smaller and medium sized powers in Europe, does not have the military or economic strength to exercise the sort of freedom of action that a bigger power, like the UK, France or Germany, could exercise. Whereas bigger countries might find European rules to be, at times, a slightly inconvenient restraint, a smaller country finds these common rules a source of protection, security and freedom. For a smaller country, the common rules guarantee it against unfair competition by an overweening bigger neighbour. They make the markets in which it competes predictable, open and free of arbitrary behaviour. The common rules that the EU makes, and enforces, enable a country like Ireland to compete on equal terms for international investment, something that would not be the case if bigger countries were unconstrained by a rule-based system. Even in fields in which it might not be directly involved, like defence, a smaller country such as Ireland benefits from the fact that bigger countries cooperate, through common organisations, like NATO and the EU, to preserve and defend a peaceful and secure space in its vicinity. Without peace in western Europe in the preceding fifty years, there would have been no Celtic Tiger in the 1990s! Now that the people of the UK have decided, in a referendum, to quit the European Union much is changed. The UK is going beyond the referendum mandate The UK government has decided...