New Estimates of Non-inclusiveness of Growth Using Two Nigerian Household Survey Data

Abstract

The robustness of public policies to reduce poverty and inequality in Nigeria was in doubt due to the report of the 2010 Harmonized National Living Standard Survey because per capita GDP growth rate rose from 3.3% in 2004 to 4.9% in 2010; yet poverty and inequality increased from 54.4% in 2004 to 69% in 2010, and from 0.4296 in 2004 to 0.447 in 2010 respectively. The objective of the study was to further investigate the inclusiveness of growth during the growth episode between 2004 and 2010 using two sequential household surveys, the NLSS 2004 and the HNLSS, 2010. The estimates of non-decomposable and decomposable inequality indicators suggest that inequality worsened. It was observed that the mean income of the poor did not rise to straighten the Lorenz curve, clearly indicating a decline in the income share of the bottom quintile of the income distribution. Since the positively sloped growth incidence curves confirm that inequality was high and rising, an “anti-poor growth by exclusion” was common within the period. In fact, it was an era of inequality with unsustainable growth. This indicates that robust and inclusive domestic public policies for broad-based growth across sectors were not pursued. The study found that the episode of growth was neither disadvantage reducing nor non-discriminatory. In sum, the growth episode was non-inclusive.