New England Shelf Break Acoustic (NESBA) experiment: Stochastic acoustic prediction

Abstract

Sonar performance prediction has been a topic of interest for decades. Predictions are based on acoustic propagation modeling that is typically deterministic, i.e., lacking quantified confidence or uncertainty bounds. While this may be adequate in some locations, in oceanographically complex regions it can result in misleading predictions and conclusions that sonar performance predictions are unreliable. A better approach includes explicit calculations of the underlying source, receiver, and environmental uncertainties to provide a prediction confidence level. In oceanographically complex areas, the resulting uncertainties are likely to be high; however, knowledge of this allows uncertainties to be managed. The NESBA Signals and Noise experiment was conducted in April–May 2021. The goal of the experiment was to assess the potential for sonar prediction effectiveness gains given improved environmental awareness. This talk addresses the NESBA sub-goal of demonstrating that high-resolution ocean modeling with ensemble forecasts (in this case, Regional NCOM) could be leveraged for stochastic acoustic predictions, resulting in increased accuracy in performance predictions with quantified uncertainty bounds. NESBA results will be presented leveraging the high-resolution ocean model forecasts with ensembles run concurrently with NESBA and the numerous temperature/salinity profiles taken during the experiment. [Work supported by the Office of Naval Research.]