New Energy Industry Fund Net Value Movement and Forecast Analysis——Empirical analysis based on data from a sample of 3645 from 2021-2022

Abstract

With the intensification of the energy crisis and environmental problems, the strategic importance of the new energy industry gradually increased. The financial industry can effectively lead the development of the new energy industry, which has a significant role in the real economy. This paper analyzes the development trend of the new energy industry by studying the change of fund net value in the emerging energy finance field and puts forward corresponding suggestions. This paper first selects 15 representative funds in the new energy sector, counts their net value per unit on trading days in 2021, and conducts empirical analysis using the 3645 sample data obtained. The HP filtering method is used to eliminate short-term and cyclical fluctuations. The short-term and cyclical fluctuations are eliminated using the HP filtering method, and long-term trends are selected as explanatory variables. Considering data characteristics and fixed effects, the truncated Tobit model is selected for fitting; robustness tests are conducted by transforming sample data; finally, heterogeneity tests are conducted by dividing fund size. The following conclusions are obtained: ① The overall direction of new energy sector funds is good, with a long-term trend of stable growth; ② Funds are susceptible to interference from external factors, which has an impact on the forecast; ③ The head enterprises of the new energy industry are more concentrated, and the fund sector shows uniformity.