New Dynamics in the World Rice Market

Abstract

In the last four decades of the 20th century, the world rice market was highly unstable, with price volatility greater than that on world wheat and maize markets. In the 21st century, however, new dynamics (a thicker world rice market, more irrigation, milder export restrictions) have contributed to a reduction in price volatility that is now lower than that on world wheat and maize markets. In addition, the El Niño events that are responsible for many shocks to the world rice market are largely predictable several months in advance. The reduced volatility on the world rice market and the predictability of El Niño events make it easier to use international trade as an instrument for food security. The recent experience with rice trade liberalization by Asian rice importers has been largely positive, helping to improve food security and the affordability of healthy diets, with little impact on domestic price volatility.