New discrete fractional accumulation Grey Gompertz model for predicting carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

Predicting carbon dioxide emissions is crucial for addressing climate change and achieving environmental sustainability. Accurate emission forecasts provide policymakers with a basis for evaluating the effectiveness of policies, facilitating the design and implementation of emission reduction strategies, and helping businesses adjust their operations to adapt to market changes. Various methods, such as statistical models, machine learning, and grey prediction models, have been widely used in carbon dioxide emission prediction. However, existing research often lacks comparative analysis with other forecasting techniques. This paper constructs a new Discrete Fractional Accumulation Grey Gompertz Model (DFAGGM(1,1) based on grey system theory and provides a detailed solution process. The Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is used to find the hyperparameters in the model. By comparing it with five benchmark models, the effectiveness of DFAGGM(1,1) in predicting carbon dioxide emissions data for China and the United States is validated.