New cathodes now, recycling later: Dynamic scenarios to reduce battery material use and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet

Abstract

We evaluated the battery material demand and GHG emissions implications from high EV and very aggressive Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) penetration rates for the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet from 2020 to 2050. If the U.S. relies primarily on EV deployment to decarbonize passenger transport, there are potentially significant supply constraints over the next decade, particularly for cobalt, lithium, and nickel. Very aggressive PHEV deployment has the potential to reduce GHGs and with ∼80% lower demand on critical metals. Recycling can play a major role reducing metal demand in the long-term but until 2035, shifting to an iron-based battery cathode reduces critical metal use by more than recycling would but with higher charging emissions due to increased weight. Increasing recycling, shifting battery chemistry, and adopting low-carbon electricity for battery production can avoid 250 million tonnes CO2e in cumulative GHG emissions from 2020 to 2050 (equivalent to 15% of U.S. transportation sector's 2020 GHG emissions).