New big war in the South Caucasus and prospects for peace in Karabakh

Abstract

The 2020 military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh became the worst one since the 1994 ceasefire. The new war lasted over a month and resulted in more than 5,000 people dead and over 10,000 wounded from both sides. Meanwhile, South Caucasus occupies a specific place in the Russian foreign policy, due to Moscow's economic, political and military presence in the region. Moscow abstained from active involvement in the war, called for humanitarian ceasefire and for an end to hostilities and helped strike the November 10 ceasefire agreement. It seems that after the war Russia will need to deal with new situation in the South Caucasus, quite different from what it was before.