Abstract
Until 2018, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was used as an explanation for fires in Indonesia’s peatlands. However, when the 2019 fires occurred independently of El Niño, more suitable indicators and methods were required to (a) analyze, (b) evaluate and (c) forecast peatland fires. In this study, we introduced the OLR–MC index—one of the rain-related indices derived from OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) in MC (maritime continent) area in Indonesia. This index showed stronger correlation with active peatland fires than the conventional ENSO index, and is likely to be able to respond to heat and dry weather supposed to be under climate-change conditions. We then analyzed peatland fires in the top six fire years from 2002 to 2018 and showed that peatland fires occurred in three stages—surface fire, shallow peatland fire and deep peatland fire. To explain each stage, we proposed a one-dimensional groundwater level (GWL) prediction model (named as MODEL-0). MODEL-0 predicts GWL from daily rainfall. Analysis using MODEL-0 showed the GWL thresholds for the three fire stages were between -300 mm and -500 mm; peatland fire activities during the three fire stages were dependent on these GWL values. The validity of MODEL-0 was shown by comparison with the measured values of GWL in the top three fire years.
Highlights
Indonesia has some of the world’s highest rates of deforestation and forest degradation, the principle drivers of which are agricultural expansion and wood extraction in combination with an increased incidence of fire [1]
The OLR–moisture content (MC) is one of indices issued by Japan Meteorological agency (JMA) and a rain-related index derived from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in Indonesia (MC: maritime continent, area from Kalimantan to west Papua)
The results allowed us to make the following conclusions: (1) OLR–MC index is introduced as one of the fire indices for predicting peatland fire occurrence
Summary
Indonesia has some of the world’s highest rates of deforestation and forest degradation, the principle drivers of which are agricultural expansion and wood extraction in combination with an increased incidence of fire [1]. Active peatland fires in 2019 occurred despite the ENSO indices being neutral and burnt about 16 × 103 km2 [8]. This suggests we have to consider the impact of recent climate change on fires in Indonesia. The risk of fire on peatland is increased greatly by drainage, which lowers the water table, exposing a greater volume of dry peat to combustion This effect is demonstrated by a study of the fire regime in the former mega rice project (MRP) area on peatland in southern Central Kalimantan [11]. The OLR–MC is one of indices issued by JMA and a rain-related index derived from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in Indonesia (MC: maritime continent, area from Kalimantan to west Papua). To explain fire activities during the fire stages, we used MODEL-0 to identify the relationship with GWL
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