Neutralizing China's transportation sector requires combined decarbonization efforts from power and hydrogen supply

Abstract

Transportation is vital to meeting China's carbon neutrality target by 2060. Nevertheless, the question of how to reach it remains unclear. Here, we employ a bottom-up energy system optimization model to investigate carbon dioxide emission trends using two sets of scenarios. The first relies solely on the efforts of the transportation sector, employing the avoid-shift-improve approach. In contrast, the second set of scenarios involves collaborative collaboration from the transportation, power and hydrogen sectors. The results reveal that achieving carbon neutrality solely through the efforts of the transportation sector is a challenging task. However, integrating negative emission technologies from the power and hydrogen sectors makes it feasible for the transportation sector to achieve carbon neutrality. Our findings suggest that in order to meet the carbon neutrality target, the energy structure of the transportation sector will undergo a fundamental transformation, with a significant increase in the use of electricity and hydrogen by 2060. Meanwhile, the power and hydrogen sectors will need to rely heavily on renewable energy sources and implement carbon capture and storage technologies to achieve substantial emissions reductions and offset the residual emissions from transportation. This study puts forward a comprehensive pathway that integrates the transportation sector with the power and hydrogen supply sectors, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.