Abstract
ObjectiveTo test the hypotheses that emerging viruses are associated with neurological hospitalizations and that statistical models can be used to predict neurological sequelae from viral infections.MethodsAn ecological study was carried out to observe time trends in the number of hospitalizations with inflammatory polyneuropathy and Guillain‐Barré syndrome (GBS) in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1997 to 2017. Increases in GBS from month to month were assessed using a Farrington test. In addition, a cross‐sectional study was conducted analyzing 50 adults hospitalized for inflammatory polyneuropathies from 2015 to 2017. The extent to which Zika virus symptoms explained GBS hospitalizations was evaluated using a calibration test.ResultsThere were significant increases (Farrington test, P<0.001) in the incidence of GBS following the introduction of influenza A/H1N1 in 2009, dengue virus type 4 in 2013, and Zika virus in 2015. Of 50 patients hospitalized, 14 (28.0%) were diagnosed with arboviruses, 9 (18.0%) with other viruses, and the remainder with other causes of such neuropathies. Statistical models based on cases of emerging viruses accurately predicted neurological sequelae, such as GBS.ConclusionThe introduction of novel viruses increases the incidence of inflammatory neuropathies.
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