Neural network prediction of severe lower intestinal bleeding and the need for surgical intervention

Abstract

BackgroundThe prognosis for patients with severe acute lower intestinal bleeding (ALIB) may be assessed by complex artificial neural networks (ANNs) or user-friendly regression-based models. Comparisons between these modalities are limited, and predicting the need for surgical intervention remains elusive. We hypothesized that ANNs would outperform the Strate rule to predict severe bleeding and would also predict the need for surgical intervention. MethodsWe performed a 4-y retrospective analysis of 147 adult patients who underwent endoscopy, angiography, or surgery for ALIB. Baseline characteristics, Strate risk factors, management parameters, and outcomes were analyzed. The primary outcomes were severe bleeding and surgical intervention. ANNs were created in SPSS. Models were compared by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals. ResultsThe number of Strate risk factors for each patient correlated significantly with the outcome of severe bleeding (r = 0.29, P < 0.001). However, the Strate model was less accurate than an ANN (AUROC 0.66 [0.57-0.75] versus 0.98 [0.95-1.00], respectively) which incorporated six variables present on admission: hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, outpatient prescription for Aspirin 325 mg daily, Charlson comorbidity index, base deficit ≥5 mEq/L, and international normalized ratio ≥1.5. A similar ANN including hemoglobin nadir and the occurrence of a 20% decrease in hematocrit was effective in predicting the need for surgery (AUROC 0.95 [0.90-1.00]). ConclusionsThe Strate prediction rule effectively stratified risk for severe ALIB, but was less accurate than an ANN. A separate ANN accurately predicted the need for surgery by combining risk factors for severe bleeding with parameters quantifying blood loss. Optimal prognostication may be achieved by integrating pragmatic regression-based calculators for quick decisions at the bedside and highly accurate ANNs when time and resources permit.