Neural network approach with teaching–learning-based optimization for modeling and forecasting long-term electric energy demand in Turkey

Abstract

This paper studies the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) with teaching–learning-based optimization (TLBO) for modeling electric energy demand (EED) in Turkey. The ANN with TLBO (ANN-TLBO) was compared to the ANN with backpropagation (ANN-BP) and the ANN with artificial bee colony algorithm (ANN-ABC) models. Gross domestic product, population, import, and export were selected as independent variables in the models. The results reveal that the ANN-TLBO models perform better than the ANN-BP and ANN-ABC models in EED estimation. The average root-mean-square error of the ANN-BP and ANN-ABC models was decreased by 42.3 and 39.3 % using the ANN-TLBO model, respectively. Different scenarios have been studied over a projected 6-year period, from 2013 to 2018, to forecast Turkey’s EED. The results of the proposed model give excellent clues with regards to its use in future energy studies.