Networks Intrusion Behavior Prediction Based on Threat Model

Abstract

The rapid development of computer networks has accelerated the development of society, but also leads to much more frequent network attacks, and makes the attacks much more complex. Therefore, network intrusion detection becomes a great challenge to the security issue both in industry and academy. In this paper, we present network attacks detection and prediction method based on threat model, and then the network security trend is analyzed. The security situation of the entire network is analyzed by a quantitative situation evaluating model, cooperating with the network topology. The experiment results shows that, during its running in an intranet security guard system of a large enterprise in 2010, the next-step attack can be predicted by our algorithm, and the security situation of the entire network can be accurately evaluated as well.