Network virus propagation and security situation awareness based on Hidden Markov Model

Abstract

The security situation of the network is determined by the observation state and hidden state of a complex virus system. To analyze the relationship between the two states and evaluate the trends in the security situation of the system, we construct a new model for security situation awareness based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Firstly, the paper examines the impact of virus propagation on network security and proposes a new SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) virus propagation model on scale-free networks. Secondly, we construct a Hidden Markov Model for network security, and this model designs and utilizes the Forward Algorithm and Viterbi Algorithm to assess the security status of epidemic networks. Finally, we ascertain the effectiveness of the model and algorithms through model examples and simulation experiments. The results show that the proposed algorithm is highly efficient in analyzing the security of virus systems and has great application value in predicting the security trends of networks.