Network flows modeling applied to the natural gas pipeline in Brazil

Abstract

The use of natural gas during the last decades has been growing, and this trend will continue until 2030, according to the Brazilian energy plan issued by Ministry of Mines and Energy (2007a). However, the capacity of transportation is one of the important elements of the supply chain in response to the distribution market. In this context, the present study aims at identifying, in a regional and integrated way, the transportation capacity of the natural gas pipeline network. Therefore, a database and a mathematical model were developed to calculate the network maximum flow in order to enable analysis of the natural gas flow in the national network. The complex natural gas flow and the forecast of increasing demand justify the study of this issue, and the development of tools to help analyze the feasibility of implanting the decennial energy plan. The mathematical model used considers a linear programming to calculate the flows in the network. Data were collected about the operating companies, existing pipelines, handling capacity, historical flow and demand forecast. The delivery capacity in the consumer markets is also analyzed by means of economic and population index compared to the 2020 target. The results show a maximum nominal capacity of 213 MM m3 per day at reception points, and 227 MM m3 per day at delivery points. Idleness was found in the networks of the Northeast and Espírito Santo area (14% and 6.1%), and lack of capacity was found in the Southeast and South networks (11.6% and 9%), compared with the economic index of consumer centers near the networks. In comparison to the current flow, 75% of idleness was found. Idleness was identified in the networks of the Northeast and Espírito Santo areas (55% and 68%), and lack of capacity was identified in the Southeast and South networks (7% and 74%), in comparison to the 2020 target. In the analysis of the 2020 target, compared to the capacity in the metropolitan areas, lack of capacity was found in the metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza and South area (68%, 5%, 59% and 74%) and idleness was found in the areas of Vitória, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Maceió, Aracaju, Salvador and Natal (85%, 72%, 40%, 93%, 8%, 58% and 17%).