Network Exploration of Interdistrict School Choice Over Time in a Mandatory Open Enrollment State

Abstract

Background: Early studies of district-level outcomes of interdistrict school choice policies found changes in how districts interact with one another and changes in districts’ per-pupil expenditures. More recent studies suggest that wider social and political consequences may result from interdistrict choice policies. Purpose: In Colorado, interdistrict school choice participation increased from 4.64% participation in the 2003–2004 fiscal year to almost 10% participation in the 2016–2017 fiscal year, shifting more than $7.79 billion in per-pupil revenue in the process. This suggests a corresponding shift in the social organization of schooling under Colorado’s statewide interdistrict school choice policy. Research Design: Quantitative studies on school choice policies typically examine the factors leading to individual choices when choosing schools or the individual outcomes of those choices. This study takes a different approach to quantitative analysis of school choice by employing separable temporal exponential random graph modeling (STERGM), a network analysis method, to examine patterns of student-enrollment ties that are created between school districts when students enroll outside their district of residence. Conclusions/Recommendations: School district leaders and policy makers should be cognizant of changes to the organization of education and the fiscal impact of those changes—especially given that findings from this study suggest that these changes may be out of their hands. Findings may have indirect impacts on matters such as mill levy and bond evaluations by way of total program formula calculations and may suggest a hidden destabilization of democratic processes, such as losing the interest of voters who send their students to a school in another district.