Network Equilibrium Modeling Considering the Travelers' Risk Perception on Arrival Time

Abstract

This paper aims at modeling Cumulative Prospect Value (CPV)-based static network equilibrium by incorporating the cumulative prospect theory to evaluate the commuters’ risk perception on arrival time. In a network with travel time uncertainty, arrival time is vital in determining the travelers’ route choice behavior. With this consideration, in this study, we formulate an arrival time perceived value to score the possible impact of arrival time on the perceived values for different routes. The evaluation for a given route depends on the travelers’ cumulative perceived value, which is assume as a synthetic outcome in terms of the total travel gain, mean travel cost and the arrival time perceived value. We then formulate a generalized CPV-based equilibrium condition similar to that for user equilibrium. Conditions for existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium formulation were examined. Finally, a numerical example with normal travel time distribution is conducted.