Network-based risk assessment of country-level sustainable development goals

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) index is an aggregate performance measure of the progress of individual countries in achieving 17 SDGs covering economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Using a data-driven probabilistic approach, this study aims to model the risks associated with individual SDGs in a network setting and establish the relative importance of SDGs in predicting the aggregate SDG index. Further, SDGs are prioritized relative to their impact on the SDG index while considering the two extreme risk states of individual SDGs. ‘Clean water and sanitation’ and ‘quality education’ goals have the highest diagnostic value relative to the ‘high performance’ and ‘low performance’ state of the SDG index, respectively. The network comprising the risks associated with individual SDGs is most vulnerable to ‘quality education’, whereas ‘no poverty’ can significantly reduce the network-wide impact. Further, the two ranking schemes regarding the vulnerability and resilience potential of individual SDGs represent quite different rankings for a few SDGs, such as ‘life on land’, ‘partnerships for the goals’, ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’ and others. The network model developed provides insights to policy-makers by establishing causal relationships among SDGs. For instance, ‘good health and well-being’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’ and ‘partnerships for the goals’ are mutually interdependent. Similarly, other causal relations exist within the network.