NETWORK ANALYSIS OF PAKISTAN STOCK MARKET DURING THE TURBULENCE OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

Abstract

Purpose – the purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the recent economic crisis on the network topology structure of Pakistan stock market. Since stock market is considered a core financial market for the development of an economy, it is often used as benchmark to measure a country`s progress. Policymakers often forecast tendency of share prices, that is dependent on several foreign and local macroeconomic factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate how rising inflation, higher interest rates, and trade and budgetary deficits affect the network structure of blue-chip 96 companies listed on the Karachi stock exchange (KSE-100) index of Pakistan stock market. Research methodology – this study follows the methodology proposed by Mantegna and Stanley and uses cross-correlation in the daily closing price of KSE 100 Index companies to compute Minimum spanning tree (MST) structures. Additionally, we also apply time-varying topological property of average tree length to extract dynamic features of the MST networks. Findings – we construct eight monthly MSTs that show the instability of the network structure and significant differences in the topological characteristics due to economic crisis of Pakistan. Furthermore, the time-varying topological property of average tree length reveals contraction of the networks due to tight correlation among stocks. Research limitations – this study focuses on correlation-based network construction of MST. The scope of the study can be widened by constructing partial correlation-based MSTs and comparison of different networks structures accordingly. Practical implications – the network properties and findings of this paper will help policymakers and regulators in setting right policies, regulatory framework, and risk management for the stock market. Originality/Value – no previous studies have performed MST based network analysis examining macroeconomic events. Therefore, we fill the research gap and thoroughly analyse structural change and dynamics of Pakistan stock market during the turbulence of current economic crisis of Pakistan.