Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century

Abstract

Abstract. Shifts in the day of peak net primary production (NPP) were detected in different biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic (25–65° N). Most provinces displayed a shift toward earlier peak NPP, with the largest change points in the 21st century and in the northern parts of the domain. Furthermore, the occurrences of the first day with a mixed-layer depth (MLD) shallower than 40 m and the day of peak NPP are positively correlated over most of the domain. As was the case for the day of peak NPP, the largest change points for the day of MLD shallower than 40 m occur around or after the year 2000. Daily output from two fully coupled CMIP6 Earth system models, EC-Earth3-CC and NorESM2-LM, for the period 1750–2100 and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, were used for the analysis. The ESM NPP data were compared with estimates derived from Carbon, Absorption and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) satellite-based data. The ESMs showed significant differences from the CAFE model, though the timing of peak NPP was well captured for most provinces. The largest change points in the day of peak NPP occur earlier in EC-Earth3-CC than in NorESM2-LM. Although SSP5-8.5 is a scenario with very high warming, EC-Earth3-CC generates change points for most provinces in the early part of the 21st century, before the warming has deviated far from lower-emissions scenarios. NorESM2-LM displays the largest change points centered around the mid 21st century, with two out of eight provinces displaying the largest change point before the year 2050. The early timing of the detected shifts in some provinces in both ESMs suggests that similar shifts could already have been initiated or could start in the near future. This highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in the North Atlantic.