Net Foreign Assets and International Adjustment in the United States, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany

Abstract

This paper examines external adjustment in the U.S., Japan and Germany from the perspective of net foreign asset positions. It asks two questions: What are, in the long run, the determinants of net foreign asset equilibrium? and: What are, in the short run, the adjustment mechanisms sustaining that equilibrium? An analysis of postwar data produces two insights. First, using a cointegration approach, the existence of long-run net foreign asset equilibrium can be identified; in each of the G-3 countries, it is a function of demographic variables and public debt. Second, deviations from the long-run equilibrium give rise to disequilibrium feedback through domestic absorption and through other channels.