Neopredelennost' otsenki vetroenergeticheskogo potentsiala Azovo-Chernomorskoy pribrezhnoy zony vsledstviye klimaticheskikh izmeneniy vetrovogo rezhima

Abstract

The paper deals with assessing an impact of wind climate change on the wind energy potential of the Azov and Black Sea coast region. A lower estimate of operating time for wind power installation and a potential annual energy output for the region are given for the case of Vestas V117-4.2MW. Calculation has been performed of a long-term mean wind speed for two adjacent climatic periods (1954–1983 and 1984–2013) based on data from meteorological stations of the Black and Azov Sea region. The results show a decrease in wind speed at all meteorological stations except for Novorossiysk. The wind climate change is confirmed by comparing two adjoined 30-year periods and by estimating linear trends of the mean annual wind speed for the period 1954–2013, which are negative and significant for almost all meteorological stations in the region (α = 1 %). The trend values were estimated by the nonparametric method of robust linear smoothing using the Theil – Sen function. In the present study, the uncertainty of wind energy resource induced by a gradual wind climate change is estimated for perspective planning of this branch of energy sector. Despite the observed trends in the wind regime, average wind speeds in the Azov and Black Sea region are sufficient for planning the location of wind power plants.