Neoclassical Realism and South Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Policy

Abstract

This article develops a neoclassical realist model of decisionmaking that starts with the realist foundation of power, then layers on additional variables at both the domestic and individual levels. Based on a psychological conception of power, and differentiating the state, the regime, and the government, the model integrates prior neoclassical studies that emphasize elite perceptions, state structure, and strategic culture. As an illustrative example, the model is applied to South Korea’s current policymaking regarding potential acquisition of nuclear arms. While South Korea is assessed to have sufficient power to pursue nuclear weapons, the lack of military utility coupled with likely harm to economic and reputational interests suggest continued rejection of such a policy.